Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.397228 10.445190 11.610560 13.011972 14.664086 16.565655 18.943175
2025-04-20 8.611764 10.107137 11.907344 14.272458 17.357559 21.334245 27.004206
2025-04-27 7.856269 9.545804 11.687529 14.675496 18.863920 24.741833 34.053481
2025-05-04 6.999394 8.704970 10.944377 14.202858 19.014842 26.214680 38.615080
2025-05-11 6.597541 8.393082 10.833545 14.538227 20.312546 29.567018 47.079200
2025-05-18 6.116521 7.914270 10.422513 14.356762 20.756942 31.608682 53.872014
2025-05-25 5.718797 7.509718 10.066474 14.195708 21.180380 33.665924 61.391763
2025-06-01 5.407616 7.198903 9.811594 14.149681 21.769933 36.126743 70.739224
2025-06-08 5.064884 6.813818 9.407332 13.808000 21.774300 37.441747 77.950122
2025-06-15 4.836358 6.580606 9.214138 13.790622 22.358766 40.059834 89.808811
2025-06-22 4.514165 6.184453 8.734025 13.229955 21.825462 40.147174 94.552278
2025-06-29 4.208289 5.796337 8.241220 12.602638 21.081330 39.616906 97.229413
2025-07-06 3.949583 5.476831 7.853708 12.156678 20.703327 40.014912 103.838150
2025-07-13 4.015243 5.667313 8.313071 13.295561 23.791012 49.827752 153.371658
2025-07-20 3.932730 5.614328 8.357744 13.660289 25.282907 56.077659 197.250244
2025-07-27 3.724927 5.345868 8.013327 13.232775 24.893394 56.805255 214.333468
2025-08-03 3.650501 5.291569 8.036824 13.536176 26.285035 63.495896 278.257410
2025-08-10 3.510208 5.119921 7.840519 13.372045 26.503829 66.497505 324.335027
2025-08-17 3.382857 4.963539 7.661501 13.226304 26.747651 69.716074 381.240411
2025-08-24 3.279055 4.841836 7.537548 13.184642 27.259384 74.167856 465.607717
2025-08-31 3.145604 4.663397 7.299055 12.875188 27.002582 75.583532 522.869748
2025-09-07 3.059536 4.562720 7.199012 12.859441 27.559439 80.607103 654.915341
2025-09-14 2.915057 4.355011 6.887975 12.350966 26.645957 79.011567 676.947898